High number of Missouri Senate candidates could affect Republican supermajority

By Brad Ziegler

Many of the Missouri state senator and state representative contests on the August primary ballot have been impacted by retirements, redistricting, party infighting, term limits and a continued lack of opposing candidates in many districts.  

Regardless of the outcome of the primary contests, the turnover in the Missouri Senate will be the largest in more than 20 years and the Republican’s supermajority in both houses may be at risk.

The Missouri Senate will see six of the 17 seats up for election this year vacated due to term limits, including Kansas City area senators Lauren Arthur and John Rizzo.  

Three others will be either retiring, leaving to run for statewide office or taking administrative positions in state government.  

Four other incumbent state senators up for reelection, including Sen. Rick Brattin from Harrisonville, face primary opponents running for their seats. Brattin, one of the Senate’s most conservative members, will be opposed by Dan Houx from Warrensburg, and Michael Haffner from Pleasant Hill, both members of the Missouri House of Representatives.  Redistricting put Warrensburg in Brattin’s Senate district and political division between Senate Republicans and Republican Freedom Caucus members has left Brattin and several other Freedom Caucus members around the state vulnerable.  

Barbara Washington, the incumbent Democratic Senator from the 9th District in Kansas City, is also facing a primary opponent, former House member and City Councilman Brandon Ellington.

All of the 163 seats for the Missouri House of Representatives are up for election this fall with 23 members leaving the legislature due to term limits and a number of others, like Houx and Haffner, seeking to move from the House to the Senate.  

There are a few Kansas City area districts where there are more than one primary candidate vying for their party’s spot in the general election in November.

The 28th District in Raytown, where Donna Barnes and Mike Sager are running as Democrats for the seat vacated by term limits by Barnes’s husband, Jerome Barnes. The 33rd District in southeastern Jackson and northeastern Cass counties, where incumbent Republican Representative Chris Sander faces primary challenger Carolyn Caton. The 19th District in Northern Jackson County, where Democrats Patricia Geronima Hernandez and Wick Thomas are competing to run against Republican Karen Spaulding for the seat vacated by term limits by Ingrid Burnett.

Even though there are still 49 districts that will not have both Republican and Democratic candidates to choose from in the fall general elections, the number of contested elections between a representative from both major parties for the Missouri House is up from 69 in 2022 to 114 this year.  

The number of uncontested Republican seats means that that party’s majority in the House will likely continue, but if the Democrats pick up three seats in the general election, as they did in 2022, the Republican supermajority in the House would be broken and a gubernatorial veto could not be overridden with a party line vote.  

Democrats would have to protect three seats and flip two seats to break the GOP supermajority in the Senate, which Republicans have held for over 10 years. Republicans have held the majority in the Senate for over two decades.