‘Project Hail Mary’ overperforms at box office as AMC stock drops below $1

By Ben McCarthy

On March 20 just after 10 p.m. at a local AMC Theaters location, a longtime employee said the public response to the much anticipated film “Project Hail Mary” was reminiscent of pre-pandemic release weekends.

“We’ve had over 2,000 people just tonight,” he said. “We’ve been lucky to get 200 in a day lately.”The man, who asked to remain anonymous, was noticeably having trouble stuffing cash into a register.

“I’ve never seen this drawer so full of money,” he said.

Before the pandemic, it wasn’t unusual for him to see weekend evenings where 1,000 people would come through every hour.

By Sunday night, the crew at an AMC much closer to the company’s world headquarters in Leawood said the movie brought out more than 3,000 ticket buyers for each day of the weekend, well over their best projections.

The movie overperformed even the most optimistic predictions from less than a week ago. Shawn Robbins, director of analytics for Fandango who founded Box Office Theory in 2011, had high hopes.

“This wasn’t just another sequel coming to theaters, Robbins said. “This is a wholly original film, albeit an adaptation from a well-received book.”

Critics’ and audiences’ early buzz was welcome for Amazon MGM’s most ambitious film to hit the big screen. The company spent at least $200 million to produce the film and will need about $500 million just to break even.

“We heard that the film delivered a big space adventure with a lighthearted comedic tone,” Robbins said. “Amazon MGM really invested in delivering amazing visuals that demanded to be seen in theaters.”

Robbins, who built his career in the industry through his own proprietary forecasting models, predicted a weekend domestic box office haul for the film as high as $71 million. By Monday, the film had grossed $80.5 Million on its way to being the first certified blockbuster of 2026.

On Tuesday, Robbins was urging caution toward any further declaration that the film’s mission was to return the box office to pre-pandemic levels, saving the country’s largest movie exhibitor in the process.

“Project Hail Mary can’t carry the entire fate of the industry on its shoulders,” Robbins said. “It might provide a real glimpse into what this year’s box office will look like.”

Theater owners are hoping this year’s films can keep young movie goers returning week after week. The full slate includes “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” headed to theaters on April 1 and Marvel Studios’ highly anticipated “Avengers: Doomsday,” just before Christmas.

In a victory for AMC and other theater chains, Amazon MGM has also promised to keep Project Hail Mary off of its streaming service, Amazon Prime, until the end of the summer.

“This long, planned theatrical window really speaks to Amazon MGM’s foresight and understanding of its importance for the theater business,” Robbins said.

On Wall Street, the overwhelming success of Project Hail Mary at the weekend box office didn’t translate into any relief. The company’s stock price dropped below $1 on Friday, March 20 for the first time in its history.

After closing at $0.98 that day, the stock didn’t reach higher than $1.05 on Monday despite the box office boom. By the end of Tuesday, it was back to $1.00.

In June 2021, the stock hit a record high of $625.48, due in large part to the “meme stock” frenzy. Having lost more than 99% of its stock value in under five years, the company now risks being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange.

In February 2025, the company acknowledged theater attendance had sunk slightly in the past year, noting it may be forced to shutter underperforming locations such as the AMC Classic Hays 8 in Hays, Kansas.

That theater, the only one in Hays, closed by April 2025. AMC, which engaged in a massive spending spree before the onset of the pandemic in 2020, remains burdened by debt. The company faces approximately $4 billion in long-term debt and more than $8 billion in total liabilities.